Market
Have Investors Had Success in Your Market Before?
Also called the "scar tissue issue" — investors who have been burned in a market before will be harder to convince, regardless of how good your startup is.
Is your market venture-scale?
The core question investors ask: can dozens (or hundreds) of venture-scale businesses be built in your market?
Being in enterprise SaaS is much more investable than running laundromats or restaurants. Why? The path to a $1B company is simply easier in software.
Venture scale means: can your startup reach $100M in revenue or a $1B valuation in under 10 years?
The Calm example
When Calm first launched, investors were skeptical — the market seemed limited to people who were already into meditating. That would not have been a venture-scale business.
Once Calm added Sleep Stories, mental recovery content for athletes, and other products, the total addressable market expanded dramatically and investors came around.
Elad Gil's "2% and $1 Billion Rule"
In a February 2017 blog post, investor Elad Gil described a useful heuristic for assessing market quality:
"In general, you want to be in markets where multiple companies could afford to buy you for $1 billion, or where 2% of their market cap is at least in the hundreds of millions of dollars."
Example — tools for creator monetisation:
| Potential acquirer | Market cap (approx.) |
|---|---|
| ~$2T | |
| ~$950B | |
| Snapchat | ~$88B |
| ~$43B |
Example — enterprise software:
| Company | Market cap (approx.) |
|---|---|
| Microsoft | ~$2.5T |
| Adobe | ~$315B |
| Salesforce | ~$300B |
Large market caps help in three ways according to Elad:
- They reflect market opportunity — based on total revenue, growth rate, and margin
- Incumbents are potential acquirers — they create exit opportunities for your investors
- Cash-rich companies become strategic investors — large incumbents often invest in startups at later stages
Ask yourself: what are the market caps of the biggest companies in my space? If the answer is "small or none," that's a signal worth examining.